智通财经APP获悉,乳业股集体走高,截至发稿,蒙牛乳业(02319)涨7.32%,报18.76港元;中国飞鹤(06186)涨1.48%,报6.17港元;优然牧业(09858)涨1.2%,报1.69港元;现代牧业(01117)涨1.11%,报0.91港元。
德邦证券指出,上半年伊利和蒙牛在出货节奏上均有所放缓,保持渠道与终端库存的合理水平;我们预计Q3开始终端产品新鲜度有所提升,动销有望逐步恢复,建议关注Q4春节备货的情况。结合当前估值处于较低水位,我们建议关注在基本面变化中对上下游供应链、渠道、产品把控力较强的龙头及成本红利下全年利润有望超预期的板块。
华泰证券指出,展望2025年,此前七部委联合发布刺激乳业的消费政策通知,政策催化下、乳制品需求有望得到改善;建议关注春节旺季的动销表现,礼赠场景有望提振高端液奶需求,且在龙头乳企锚定高质量发展、积极布局有机等高端品类的推动下,产品结构提升可期。此外,该行看好顶层设计对生育支持的重视,奶粉行业集中度提升仍为主线。
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