高盛发表报告指，维持长实集团(01113.HK) 及新地(00016.HK) “买入”评级，目标价分别92元及41元；另维持新世界(00017.HK) 及恒地(00012.HK) “沽售”评级，目标价分别5.8元及19.5元。
报告指，截至10月底，本年至今香港零售和写字楼租金指数累跌分别约4%和5%，而价格则下跌双位数。根据该行估计，目前香港零售和写字楼的按揭利率封顶息率较2023年分别上升约0.4和0.8个百分点，分别达到6.7%和4.7%。这导致本港商业房地产的平均按揭利率封顶息上升0.6个百分点至5.7%，较发展商平均按揭利率封顶息4.7%高出1个百分点。
在香港发展商中，恒地及新世界发展对本港商业房地产的平均按揭利率封顶息的假设较为进取，而长建及新地则较为保守。倘若以目前业界估计的5.7%作为覆盖上限率的基准，投资物业组合价值将改变介乎增4%至降24%，而行业平均影响为降13%。
在此情况下，新世界发展及恒地的投资物业估值将受到更大的负面影响，分别为降19%及降24%。倘若将较高的按揭利率封顶息具体化为股本亏损，将导致新世界发展同恒地的净资产负债比率分别上升约26个百分点及11个百分点至115%及52%。与此同时，将对长实及新地投资组合的估值造成零和8%的以市价入账影响，而对资产负债水平的影响则可忽略不计。(ha/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-12-19 16:25。)
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