金吾财讯 | 国泰君安发研指，中烟香港(06055)发布正面盈利预告，预计2024年归母净利润增幅不低于30%，增速符合预期，盈利提升主因深耕现有业务及开拓新业务，全年利润增速慢于上半年（24H1同比+41%）预计主因发运节奏问题。该行预计下半年收入端延续稳健增长，全年归母净利率有望较2023年进一步提升。该行续指，中国烟草集团对于中烟香港的定位为资本市场运营及国际业务扩展，公司有望作为上市平台整合中烟系资源。2021年公司并购中烟巴西，通过管理、生产、销售、治理等多方面赋能增厚后者盈利，后续收并购落地将为公司带来额外业绩弹性，在此基础上管理赋能有望发挥协同效应。该行表示，根据业绩预告上调2024年EPS至1.13港元（前值1.11港元），维持2025-2026年EPS1.30、1.52港元，参考海外可比公司估值，维持目标价32.4港元、对应2025年PE25X，维持增持评级。
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