The three-year earnings decline is not helping Ternium's (NYSE:TX share price, as stock falls another 3.7% in past week

Simply Wall St.
24 Dec 2024

As an investor its worth striving to ensure your overall portfolio beats the market average. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) shareholders, since the share price is down 33% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 22%. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 33% in the last year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 21% in the last 90 days.

With the stock having lost 3.7% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

View our latest analysis for Ternium

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Ternium saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 72% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 13% compound annual share price fall. So, despite the prior disappointment, shareholders must have some confidence the situation will improve, longer term. This positive sentiment is also reflected in the generous P/E ratio of 71.20.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NYSE:TX Earnings Per Share Growth December 24th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Ternium, it has a TSR of -16% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Ternium had a tough year, with a total loss of 27% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 12% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ternium better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Ternium you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

Of course Ternium may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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