交银国际发布研究报告称，美联储昨日（19日）将基准利率下调25个基点，至4.25至4.5之间，符合市场及该行预期。虽然美国如期减息，但美股、美债、黄金等资产均大幅下挫，主要是由于美联储“鹰派”阶段切换幅度超出市场预期。
交银国际续表示，虽然目前4.3%的政策利率水平仍然具有限制性，但中性利率亦在上升，令美联储距离中性行率更进一步。同时，候任美国总统特朗普在政策上的不确定性，亦令宏观能见度下降，因此，美联储有理由在减息节奏上“轻踩刹车”，以观察通胀和经济增长走势。
不过，该行认为明年特朗普的政策组合短期对通胀路径的影响有限，且财政偏向收窄，利率由紧转中性的过程中，美国经济大幅上行的风险有限，美联储的政策空间，或将在明年上半年较为宽裕。该行预计美国明年还有两至三次降息，节奏上或会跳过1月会议，分别在3月及6月各减息一次。
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