Fukuoka Financial Group Inc．首席策略师Tohru Sasaki在一份报告中称，受结构性因素影响，日元兑美元到2025年底可能贬至170，美联储可能不会再降息。
“日元走弱和美元走强背后的基本面因素预计将持续到2025年，其影响甚至有可能增强，” Sasaki写道。
Sasaki表示，日元疲软不能仅用利差因素来解释，还有负实际利率和资本外流等结构性因素。明年下半年美联储甚至有可能转向加息，随着降息预期消退以及市场意识到加息的可能性，10年期美债收益率达到5%的可能性相对较高。
Sasaki认为，美国候任总统特朗普不太可能奉行让美元走软的政策，因为那会加剧通胀压力。
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