Dec 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell more than 5% on Thursday from a near two-year high in holiday-thinned trade as forecasts for less cold conditions in the short term overshadowed support from a rise in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 20.2 cents, or 5.1%, to $3.74 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:59 a.m. EST (1318 GMT) after hitting their highest level since January 2023 earlier in the session.

"This morning we're pulling back, mainly because there is some doubt as to how cold January will be and we are definitely going to see a bit of a warm-up at the start of the year," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

Financial firm LSEG forecast 393 heating degree days over the next two weeks, lower than the 10-year normal of 427 HDDs and 30-year normal of 432 HDDs.

It also forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, falling to 119.8 bcfd next week from 132.9 bcfd this week.

The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.8 bcfd so far in December from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 103.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

Elsewhere, Alexei Miller, the head of Russia's Gazprom, said the group's natural gas production is set to rise this year by 61 billion cubic metres (bcm) to around 416 bcm.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year

Dec 20 Dec 13 Dec 20 average

Forecast Actual Dec 20

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -97 -125 -87 -127

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,525 3,622 3,515 3,363

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 4.8% 3.8%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five-Year

Last Year Average Average

2023 (2018-2022)

Henry Hub 3.95 3.76 2.54 2.66 3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 14.08 11.55 13.04 14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 13.97 13.99 14.03 14.39 14.31

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year

Norm Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs 393 376 374 427 432

U.S. GFS CDDs 2 3 1 4 3

U.S. GFS TDDs 395 379 375 431 435

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year

Week Last Year (2019-2023)

Average For

Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 103.4 103 102.7 105.6 97.8

U.S. Imports from Canada 9.5 10.4 9.4 N/A 8.7

U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2

Total U.S. Supply 112.9 113.5 112.1 N/A 106.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada 3.5 3.5 3.5 N/A 3.4

U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.6 5.7 N/A 5.4

U.S. LNG Exports 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.7 10.8

U.S. Commercial 14.4 16.4 13.3 13.8 14.3

U.S. Residential 23.4 27.3 21.3 22.0 23.4

U.S. Power Plant 30.9 32.3 29.6 35.1 30.3

U.S. Industrial 24.7 25.3 24.2 24.7 25.1

U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.8 3.7

U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total U.S. Consumption 101.5 109.4 96.2 103.6 102.1

Total U.S. Demand 124.7 132.9 119.8 N/A 121.7

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam 2025 2025 2024 2003 2022

Current Day Prior Day % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal

% of Normal % of Normal Actual Actual Actual

Forecast Forecast

Apr-Sep 94 95 74 83 107

Jan-Jul 93 93 76 77 102

Oct-Sep 94 95 77 76 103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Week ended 2023 2022 2021

Dec 27 Dec 20

Wind 9 13 10 11 10

Solar 3 3 4 3 3

Hydro 5 6 6 6 7

Other 1 1 2 2 2

Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0

Natural Gas 39 39 41 38 37

Coal 20 17 17 21 23

Nuclear 22 21 19 19 20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

Henry Hub 3.10

Transco Z6 New York 8.22

PG&E Citygate 3.45

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.79

Chicago Citygate 2.86

Algonquin Citygate 15.69

SoCal Citygate 3.46

Waha Hub 2.39

AECO 1.68

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub Current Day Prior Day

New England 53.50

PJM West 35.50

Ercot North 27.88

Mid C 36.83

Palo Verde 45.00

SP-15 45.25

(Reporting by Anmol Choubey and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Porter)

((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com;))

((For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down. For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: For the U.S. power speed guide, see: To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub futures only ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps ))