Declining Stock and Solid Fundamentals: Is The Market Wrong About Super Retail Group Limited (ASX:SUL)?

Simply Wall St.
29 Dec 2024

With its stock down 13% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Super Retail Group (ASX:SUL). However, a closer look at its sound financials might cause you to think again. Given that fundamentals usually drive long-term market outcomes, the company is worth looking at. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Super Retail Group's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Super Retail Group

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Super Retail Group is:

17% = AU$240m ÷ AU$1.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every A$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn A$0.17 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Super Retail Group's Earnings Growth And 17% ROE

At first glance, Super Retail Group seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 17%. This probably goes some way in explaining Super Retail Group's moderate 13% growth over the past five years amongst other factors.

Next, on comparing Super Retail Group's net income growth with the industry, we found that the company's reported growth is similar to the industry average growth rate of 15% over the last few years.

ASX:SUL Past Earnings Growth December 28th 2024

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Super Retail Group is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Super Retail Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 66% (or a retention ratio of 34%) for Super Retail Group suggests that the company's growth wasn't really hampered despite it returning most of its income to its shareholders.

Moreover, Super Retail Group is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 65%. Therefore, the company's future ROE is also not expected to change by much with analysts predicting an ROE of 19%.

Conclusion

In total, we are pretty happy with Super Retail Group's performance. In particular, its high ROE is quite noteworthy and also the probable explanation behind its considerable earnings growth. Yet, the company is retaining a small portion of its profits. Which means that the company has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's not too bad. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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