K33 Research:全球市场消化美联储2025年降息预期,比特币与股市表现密切相关

Odaily
01 Jan

Odaily星球日报讯 K33 Research 分析师在一份报告中表示,尽管全球股票指数下跌,但比特币仍保持在 95,000 美元以上。然而,按周计算,比特币与主要股票指数同步下跌。K33 研究负责人 Vetle Lunde 表示:“在 FOMC 会议之后的过去两周,全球风险降低,比特币的两周回报率为负 11%,而以太坊则下跌了 15%,推动 ETH/BTC 汇率跌至 0.036。” Vetle 称,当前比特币的下跌与全球股市密切相关。自 9 月底以来,该数字资产与纳斯达克的 30 天相关性首次突破 0.50。他认为 12 月 18 日的 FOMC 会议是导致市场走跌的关键因素。在这次会议上,美联储的点阵图被修改为预计 2025 年将降息两次,低于 9 月份预测的四次。降息往往会提振市场,因此预计降息次数减少对比特币等风险资产不利。 Vetle 表示:“尽管美联储自 9 月以来已将利率下调了 100 个基点,但 10 年期美国国债收益率却上涨了 100 个基点,这表明市场预计未来会出现通胀冲动。”他指出,在 FOMC 会议之后,比特币经历了大量 ETF 资金流出,而 MicroStrategy 的购买也更加克制。(The Block

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