金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研报指，海外多国大力扶持本土光伏制造，由于电池片生产难度较大，海外组件产能远超电池片，且缺口短期内难以明显缩小，推动中国电池片出口量大增。海外售价相比中国溢价明显，海外超额利润逐渐由组件企业向电池片企业转移由于转换效率更高，N型电池近年来快速取代P型成为主流，在N型各技术路线中，目前TOPCon性价比优势明显，占据绝对主流，xBC效率最高但尚处量产初期成本较高，发展潜力大。由于产能过剩，2023年以来电池片价单W盈利持续下行，但在亏损压力下，部分落后产能已被迫停产，在产产能也下调开工率，2024年10月以来单W盈利持续回升，拐点已现。该行认为全行业亏损无法长期持续，在政策支持下产能将加速出清，同时电池片产能过剩较为轻微，有望率先在光伏主产业链中实现供需平衡，2026年利润率将恢复至合理水平。凭借量产转换效率、非硅成本等方面的优势，该行认为目前一线企业相比二三线企业盈利优势明显且可长期维持，随着产能逐步出清，专业化龙头反转可期。
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