智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股早盘走低，截至发稿，中国神华(01088)跌2.63%，报31.5港元；兖矿能源(01171)跌2.54%，报8.45港元；首钢资源(00639)跌2.05%，报2.4港元；蒙古焦煤(00975)跌1.41%，报6.98港元。
华源证券指出，2024年以来我国动力煤价格整体呈震荡下行态势，但是进入11月中旬后，我国产地及港口煤价快速下跌，连带进口煤价格同步下跌。秦皇岛5500大卡动力末煤单价跌幅近百元，12月底价格出现小幅反弹，坑口价走势与港口价基本同步。综合新闻媒体以及贸易网站观察来看，动力煤价格短期急跌超出市场预期。
该行指出，俄罗斯煤炭进口量占比已经处于相对低位，进口结构变化对煤价的进一步影响相对有限，在进口煤放量背景下，煤价有望在新平台上重新形成平衡。虽然未来煤价走势影响因素众多，但是不建议将11月下旬以来的煤价走势线性外推，气温影响仅为短期扰动，建议聚焦中长期供需格局，需进一步观察进口煤政策及国内刺激政策落地节奏。
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