GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG down from one-month high ahead of Lunar New Year

Reuters
10 Jan

By Marwa Rashad

LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ prices fell this week from a one-month high, amid weak demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, healthy stocks and as recent high prices kept some buyers at bay.

The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east Asia was $14.00 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down from $14.60 last week, industry sources estimated.

"Spot gas prices in Europe and in Asia have dropped back from their highs at the start of the month, as the market has absorbed the shutdown of Russia-Ukraine pipe flows" said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.

"China's demand doesn't seem too strong at the moment. November and December dropped below last year's levels and we saw three cargoes re-exported in December, one each to South Korea, Thailand and Japan," Froley said.

The high price levels over the past weeks have kept price sensitive buyers in both China and India away from the spot market, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.

With stocks still relatively well-filled and not much economic improvement given the latest numbers on Chinese industrial production and inflation, it seems clear that some portfolio managers must be well-prepared for the second half of the winter, said Klaas Dozeman, market analyst at Brainchild Commodity Intelligence.

"As the Lunar New Year approaches, the risk of any shortfall

during the winter season decreases by the day. It is hence no surprise that spot activity is still limited with only Bangladesh as an active buyer at the moment," Dozeman added.

In Europe, LNG delivered prices fell this week from a one-year high the previous week. However, the inter-basin arbitrage, moving cargos from one market to another, has held firmly shut, with at least two cargoes diverting in the mid-Atlantic to Europe this week as Asian buyers are not competing for Atlantic basin supply, Argus' Martin Senior said.

Meanwhile, Europe has been withdrawing from gas storage faster than the last few years but those winters were mild, and this year’s trajectory is not out of line with longer-term averages, ICIS' Froley said.

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker $(NWM.AU)$ price benchmark for cargoes delivered in February on an ex-ship $(DES.AU)$ basis at $13.385/mmBtu on Jan. 9, a $0.20/mmBtu discount to the February gas price at the Dutch TTF hub.

Argus assessed the price at $13.355/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $13.324/mmBtu.

The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Panama Canal is currently also signalling U.S. cargoes are incentivised to deliver to north-west Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.

The front-month arbitrage is also firmly closed, likely a large driving factor behind the recent diversions of U.S. cargoes away from Asia and towards Europe.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates dropped to $24,000/day on Friday, while Pacific rates remained steady at $21,750/day, Afghan added.

(Reporting by Marwa Rashad; Editing by Nina Chestney)

((marwa.rashad@thomsonreuters.com; +447823669044; Reuters Messaging: marwa.rashad.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

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