金吾财讯 | 摩根大通发表研究报告指，内险股去年表现跑赢大市，惟今年受到明显的宏观不利因素影响，令该行业吸引力下降。该行表示，中国10年期国债收益率已跌至1.6%的历史低位，这是快速且大幅地下跌。由于保险业务的长尾性质，预计潜在的宏观不利因素将逐步而非大幅反映于财务状况。然而，该行关注偿付能力资本容量的中期风险，这可能导致股息压力、业务增长放缓及资产负债管理(ALM)恶化。因此，该行认为估值倍数有收缩的机会。该行下调主要的内险股评级。当中，中国平安(02318)由“增持”降至“中性”，目标价由78港元降至50港元；偏好中国财险(02328)，由“减持”调升至“增持”，目标价由7.8港元升至15港元，而中国人民保险集团(01339)则由“中性”升至“增持”，目标价由3.3港元升至4.7港元。
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