AGS WEEK AHEAD: Hawkish Fed Expectations Weigh on Outlook, But U.S. Report Shows Optimism

Dow Jones
Jan 14
 

By Giulia Petroni

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Jan. 13-17 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro mood is mixed this week, with the U.S. dollar rising toward its highest level as strong jobs data led investors to scale back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential U.S. tariffs remain in focus. Investors now await consumer price index data due on Wednesday for more cues on the path of monetary policy.

"A strong CPI print on Wednesday would push interest rates even higher, strengthen the dollar to new 26-month highs, and really ding our commodity markets," analysts at Peak Trading Research say in a note.

Weather conditions across key South American agricultural regions are largely unchanged, according to the research firm. Northern Brazil is expected to remain relatively wet, while Southern Brazil will continue to experience dry conditions until at least next weekend. Meanwhile, Argentina is grappling with hot and dry weather, further stressing crops.

The USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report last week pointed to bullish market trends due to significant reductions in 2024 corn and soybean yields, suggesting further price increases, analysts at Peak Trading Research say.

On Tuesday, Chicago wheat futures rise 0.6% to $5.48 a bushel, while corn is down 0.3% at $4.75 a bushel. Soybean prices are down 0.2% at $10.51 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES: Cocoa prices trade higher--but well below the $12,000 mark reached last month--on concerns that slowing cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast will tighten global markets. Coffee prices instead are mixed as dry conditions in Brazil support arabica while robusta coffee falls on higher December exports from Vietnam.

Cocoa is up 1.6% at $11,107 a metric ton, while coffee falls 0.5% to $3.24 a pound. Sugar is down 3.3% at 18 cents a pound.

 

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 14, 2025 09:53 ET (14:53 GMT)

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