智通财经APP获悉，乳业股今日回暖，截至发稿，优然牧业(09858)涨5.84%，报1.63港元；现代牧业(01117)涨3.61%，报0.86港元；中国飞鹤(06186)涨3.3%，报5.32港元；蒙牛乳业(02319)涨1.05%，报15.4港元。
消息面上，国家统计局发布数据，2024年全年出生人口954万人。高盛称，新生儿数量高于该行预期和联合国预测，主要得益于疫情后经济复苏超预期和龙年效应。在基本情景下，该行预计2025-2026年0-4岁年龄段的人口同比降幅将大幅收窄至5%/4%，到2033年该年龄段人口数量可能恢复正增长，这意味着婴幼儿配方奶粉行业的销量压力将有所减轻。
光大证券指出，乳制品逐步进入春节备货阶段，得益于前期持续推进的去库存工作，下半年渠道库存水平已回落至相对合理水平。价格竞争对比上半年持续缓解，常温液奶的终端价格逐步修复，折扣力度环比上半年有所降低。费用方面下半年对比上半年亦有降低。乳企对于本次春节及25年全年的增长目标设定更为理性，费用投放更为谨慎，对利润端提出更高要求。
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