港股异动 | 黄金股午后走强市场避险情绪迅速升温金价上行逻辑不改

智通财经

Jan 22, 2025

智通财经APP获悉，黄金股午后走强，截至发稿，灵宝黄金(03330)涨14.58%，报4.95港元；山东黄金(01787)涨3.43%，报14.8港元；招金矿业(01818)涨2.95%，报12.58港元；中国黄金国际(02099)涨1.15%，报43.9港元。

消息面上，1月21日，受特朗普政策不确定性影响，美元美债全线走低，金价延续强势，跃升至两个月新高。特朗普表示，正在考虑对墨西哥和加拿大征收25%的关税，“我认为我们将在2月1日做此事”，受此言论刺激，市场避险情绪迅速升温，黄金应声大涨。相关分析指出，黄金上涨的主要原因包括美国CPI数据下降、M2货币供应量增加、特朗普政策的不确定性、美联储降息预期、技术面支撑以及全球经济不确定性。

华源证券发布研报称，2024年11月黄金价格的回撤主要为美国大选事件落地、预期及短期经济数据催化所致，当前金价或已部分或完全反应相应边际变化，底部区间已现。金价上行逻辑不改，“降息交易”+“特朗普2.0”双主线有望持续催化。另一方面，保护主义+大国博弈背景下，央行增储对金价形成强有力底部支撑。短期看，25年美联储降息预期扰动以及特朗普上台后的加关税政策驱动通胀预期交易或将短期主导金价走势。长期看，在美国货币和财政政策双宽松，美元信用收缩及去美元化的大背景下，预计黄金中长期仍具备上涨空间。

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