Polymarket因TikTok禁令预测决定遭用户质疑,指责其操纵结果

Odaily
Jan 26, 2025

Odaily星球日报讯 Polymarket 上预测“TikTok 将在 2025 年 5 月前在美国被禁”事件结果为“是”,这一决定在用户中引发争议,指责 Polymarket 操纵结果。该事件交易量达 1.2 亿美元。 1 月 19 日,禁令生效,TikTok 向用户显示一条消息,称该应用将不再可访问。 然而,仅一天之后,在总统特朗普的干预下,TikTok 宣布将再保留 75 天的访问权限,特朗普暂时中止了禁令,以便与字节跳动进行协议谈判。 这引起了 Polymarket 用户的困惑,他们认为 TikTok 并未被有效禁止,因为它对大多数美国人来说仍然可以使用。 Polymarket 依靠 UMA 的 Optimistic Oracle (OO)来解决其预测市场结果。OO 为争议提供初步结果,如果有争议,则可升级为 UMA 的数据验证机制(DVM)。 在这种情况下,DVM 流程被绕过,市场直接解决为“是”,从而导致操纵的指控。 这并不是 Polymarket 第一次面临批评。 2024 年 5 月,Polymarket 用户对 UMA 关于以太坊 ETF 预测市场的决议提出质疑。 2024 年 6 月,有关巴伦·特朗普(Barron Trump)涉嫌参与 Meme 币的市场引发了众怒,当时 Polymarket 推翻了 UMA 的决议,并向反对 UMA 裁决的用户退还了资金。(Cointelegraph)

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