Johnson Controls International plc JCI is scheduled to release first-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended December 2024) financial numbers on Feb. 5, before market open.

The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. The average surprise was 3.5%. In the last reported quarter, its earnings of $1.28 per share beat the consensus estimate of $1.25 by 2.4%.

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $5.33 billion, indicating a decrease of 12.6% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. The consensus estimate for adjusted earnings is pinned at 59 cents per share, indicating an increase of 15.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

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Key Factors and Estimates to Note Ahead of JCI’s Earnings Release

The Building Solutions North America segment is expected to have benefited from solid demand for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) platforms in data centers and strength in the controls business. We expect the segment’s revenues to be $2.7 billion, implying an increase of 8% from the year-ago figure.

The Building Solutions Europe, the Middle East, Africa/Latin America segment is expected to have benefited from strength in the control, security and industrial refrigeration businesses. Our estimate for the segment’s revenues is pegged at $1.1 billion, indicating a 5% increase from the year-ago figure.

Strong momentum in the commercial and residential HVAC businesses is likely to have aided the company’s Global Products segment.

Investments in digital offerings, like the OpenBlue platform that plays an integral part in meeting customer needs, are expected to have driven the company’s revenues.

We expect the company’s total revenues to be $5.3 billion for the fiscal first quarter, indicating an increase of 2.1% year over year. Adjusted earnings are expected to be 50 cents per share, indicating a 9.2% increase from the year-ago quarter’s number.

However, Johnson Controls is expected to have put up a weak show due to softness across its Building Solutions Asia Pacific segment. Continued weakness in system sales in China is likely to have dented the performance of the segment. We expect revenues from the segment to decrease 14.3% year over year to $434.8 million.

The escalating selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses pose a threat to Johnson Controls’ bottom line. Higher insurance recovery costs are expected to have pushed up the SG&A expenses, which is likely to have impacted its margins in the fiscal first quarter.

JCI has considerable exposure to overseas markets. Given the company’s substantial international operations, foreign currency headwinds are likely to have marred its margins and profitability.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for JCI this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.

Earnings ESP: JCI has an Earnings ESP of +0.60% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 59.3 cents per share, which is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 59 cents. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: JCI presently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in this reporting cycle.

Greif, Inc. GEF has an Earnings ESP of +1.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is slated to release first-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended December 2024) results on Feb. 26. GEF’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the mark in one, the average surprise being 133.5%.

Flowserve Corporation FLS has an Earnings ESP of +2.60% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 18.

Flowserve’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed the mark in one, the average surprise being 10.8%.

AptarGroup, Inc. ATR has an Earnings ESP of +0.16% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The company is slated to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 6.

AptarGroup’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 6.1%.

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