AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 5.16%) stock jumped 7.6% through 11:15 a.m. ET Thursday after Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield initiated coverage on the satellite communications stock with an "overweight" (i.e., buy) rating.

According to the investment banker, AST stock, which closed below $25 last night, could hit $30 within a year.

Why Cantor Fitzgerald loves AST SpaceMobile stock

"AST's strategic alignment with large telco and tech enterprises" such as AT&T and Verizon, argues Cantor, plus the company's "budding defense opportunities, and supply chain readiness," make the stock a buy. Or at least they could make the stock a buy, assuming "AST executes on milestones and reports growth indicators."

As related by StreetInsider.com this morning, Cantor is particularly optimistic about the chance AST will be tapped to do work for the Space Development Agency (aka Space Force), as well as win other government work.

Is AST SpaceMobile stock a buy?

The downside? Cantor isn't unaware of the risks of investing in a start-up space stock with no profits and almost no revenue.

Cash consumption is rising as AST builds out its satellite fleet. And even assuming AST hits its marks, begins beta service this year, and grows its business strongly through 2027, when AST is expected to earn more than $540 million in profit on less than $2 billion in revenue, Cantor cautions that "valuations against our 2027E numbers and consensus estimates screen as extended."

But extensive isn't quite the same thing as irrationally exuberant. At $5 billion in market capitalization, AST SpaceMobile stock trades for only 2.5 times 2027 sales, which isn't necessarily a crazy valuation for a space stock. It's less than 10x 2027 estimated net income too, which sounds even more reasonable.

All AST SpaceMobile needs to do now is execute on time, and prove it can earn the future profits that analysts are already giving it credit for today.