• Group Growth: 12% growth in 2024, following 11% growth in 2023.
• Underwriting Profits: Increased by 28% over two years.
• Policy Count Growth (UK): 12% increase.
• Dividend Proposal: EUR1.70 per share, up EUR0.10 from last year.
• Premium Growth (Private): 8% currency-adjusted growth in Q4.
• Topdanmark Growth: 11% growth in Q4.
• Private Retention Rate: Stable at 89%.
• Policy Additions (UK): 84,000 new policies in Q4.
• Net Insurance Revenue Outlook: EUR8.7 billion to EUR9 billion.
• Underwriting Result Outlook: EUR1.35 billion to EUR1.45 billion.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with BOM:500288.

Release Date: February 06, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Sampo Oyj (SAXPF) reported a 12% growth in 2024, building on an 11% growth in 2023, with a significant increase in underwriting profits by 28% over two years.
• The company successfully completed important corporate renewals in the Nordics and maintained strong momentum in the UK, with a 12% growth in policy count.
• Sampo Oyj (SAXPF) has enhanced its digital capabilities and advanced pricing techniques, contributing to its strong market position and growth.
• The acquisition of the minority interest in Topdanmark was completed, marking a strategic milestone and simplifying the company's structure.
• A dividend proposal of EUR1.70 per share was announced, up EUR0.10 from the previous year, with potential for share buybacks later in the year.

Negative Points

• The UK market faces challenges in predicting claims inflation and frequencies post-2022-2024 volatility, which could impact future profitability.
• Claims inflation remains above historical averages, particularly in the motor segment, posing a risk to cost management.
• The integration of Topdanmark is ongoing, with limited synergies expected to be realized in 2025 due to IT and process changes.
• The company's solvency ratio has dipped, and financial leverage has increased compared to the previous year, raising concerns about balance sheet strength.
• New car sales in the Nordics, particularly in Sweden, have been low, impacting growth in motor insurance policies.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Are there other products or countries in the Nordics where you see similar repricing dynamics as in Norway? Also, is the PI growth mainly from cross-selling or acquiring new clients? A: Repricing is higher in Norway, but Denmark is catching up, with an index above 4%. Sweden is also seeing some price increases. PI growth is typically from cross-selling to existing customers. - Morten Thorsrud, Member of the Group Executive Committee

Q: What are your assumptions for the Swedish new car sales market in your 2025 guidance, and how should we think about the mix between price and volume growth at Hastings? A: We expect a small increase in new car sales in Sweden, but it won't significantly impact insurance service results immediately. Hastings' growth varies depending on opportunities, with strong development in home insurance and telematics. - Morten Thorsrud, Member of the Group Executive Committee and Torbjorn Magnusson, Group CEO

Q: Could you provide insights into the growth in Norway, specifically the balance between volume and pricing? Also, what are the price increases in various markets? A: Most growth in Norway is from pricing, though there is some volume growth in certain lines. Price increases are higher in Norway compared to other Nordic countries. - Morten Thorsrud, Member of the Group Executive Committee

Q: How is the frequency versus claims inflation growth in motor across Sweden, Finland, and Norway? A: Frequency is normalizing post-COVID, with gradual return to normal levels across all countries. Claims inflation remains higher than normal but is manageable with adequate pricing. - Morten Thorsrud, Member of the Group Executive Committee

Q: Could you elaborate on the prior year releases and capital generation opportunities? A: Prior year releases were elevated due to positive developments in older claims and long-tailed business. Capital opportunities include extending the partial internal model to Danish and UK businesses, potentially lowering capital requirements. - Morten Thorsrud, Member of the Group Executive Committee and Knut Alsaker, Group CFO

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.