BlockBeats 消息，2 月 10 日，中信证券研报指出，2025 年 1 月美国新增非农就业人数低于预期，医疗保健服务、零售业和政府部门是主要贡献项。洛杉矶的山火以及美国其他地区的严寒天气并未对整体就业市场产生明显影响。失业率下降、薪资增速上升，加之年度修订下调人数少于初步修订，就业市场保持健康。
我们预计马斯克领导的政府效率部（DOGE）对 2025 年新增非农就业影响较小。非农数据打破了 12 月 CPI 发布后市场较为乐观的情绪，降息预期再度后置。接下来市场的焦点将围绕特朗普的关税迷雾和通胀预期，预计美股将维持高波动状态，若 1 月 CPI 或关税计划超预期，美债利率和美元指数或将再次上行。我们维持美联储今年降息 2 次、每次 25bps 的判断。（金十）
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