【豆粕：近月与主力的分歧】金十期货2月12日讯，本周豆粕近月合约强势涨停，带动05合约上涨，此后主力带动03合约下跌。1. 巴西卖压尚未体现，近期贴水偏强，大豆近月预期少加之国内海关通关慢传言（本周到港大豆数量增加，但在边际方面看到华北、福建区域到港同比减少），油厂开机压榨尚未起色，豆粕最新库存42.3万吨，较上周减少5.76万吨，同比去年减32.35万吨，当下市场缺豆担忧推动豆粕现货基差走强，面对高价豆粕，部分下游企业下调豆粕添加比例来降低成本，加之传闻南方港口开始放松大豆卸港检验，现货市场情绪降温。2. 钢联数据显示当前港口不缺豆子，下周开机压榨预计回升，或缓解豆粕现货的供应紧张问题。据CHS，本周一共追踪到15船到国内的大豆成交。传周一至周二Sinograin采购5-6船阿根廷大豆，另中国采购2船巴西大豆（4月和6月船期）。关注后续港口通关政策、巴西装船及储备大豆拍卖情况。3. 中长期来看，阿根廷干旱、巴西收获进度慢，较难撼动南美丰产预期，只是将供应压力往后移。南美丰产预期也为全球大豆宽松格局奠定基础，掣肘着美豆的上行空间。后续巴西大豆上量、国内二季度大豆供应恢复后，豆粕现货基差也将从高位走弱。
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