Upstart Delivers Another Big Earnings Surprise, And Its Stock Skyrocketing 26%

Dow Jones
Feb 12, 2025

Upstart's stock is surging after upbeat results and guidance. This could be the third consecutive major gain for the AI lending company's shares after earnings.

Upstart Holdings Inc.'s stock looks poised for another dramatic post-earnings move.

Shares of the lending company were up 26% in Tuesday's after-hours trading on the heels of upbeat results and guidance.

The company, which uses artificial intelligence to inform lending decisions, expects first-quarter revenue of about $200 million, whereas analysts tracked by FactSet were expecting $184.6 million. Upstart $(UPST)$ also expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $27 million, while analysts had been modeling $9 million.

For the latest quarter, Upstart turned in revenue of $219 million, up 56% from a year before and above the FactSet consensus, which was for $181.9 million. The company saw more than 245,000 loans originated, with a higher conversion rate on requests relative to the same period a year prior.

Chief Executive Dave Girouard said in a release that the company "grew dramatically across all product categories" as it also "came within a whisker of returning to GAAP profitability."

Upstart posted a fourth-quarter loss of $2.8 million, or 3 cents a share. Adjusted Ebitda was $38.8 million, versus the $5.8 million FactSet consensus.

Shares of Upstart have been on a recent hot streak, nearly doubling over the past six months. But they're still down 83% from their all-time closing high of $390 set in October 2021.

Upstart was once a market darling, but its revenue is well down from peak levels. The company has seen less robust demand for its loans due to higher rates relative to several years ago, though it returned to growth in 2024 and is forecast to see greater momentum in the coming years.

The shares tend to swing wildly around earnings, rising around 40% following each of the prior two reports. The stock saw some dramatic negative post-earnings swings before that.

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