【华泰证券：维持日央行今年可能加息两次以上的预测】华泰证券指出，2月来，日元汇率稳中有升，兑美元升值1.9%至151.2、兑欧元和人民币分别升值2%、2.8%。虽然本轮日元升值曲线不及去年7-8月间“陡峭”，但相比去年，我们更看好本轮日元升值的持续性。回头看，去年4月-6月间日元多次触及160的低点、或已形成本轮的底部。虽然美国最终仍将推出的关税政策仍可能推升美元汇率，但随着日本再通胀进入第4年，我们在当前时点更看好日元升值的前景——尤其是考虑到2025年日本面临的国内外政治、经济环境。我们维持日央行今年可能加息两次以上的预测、不排除再次加息时点早于市场预期的7月——不排除日元今年兑美元升值的趋势刚刚启动。

金融界

Feb 11, 2025

华泰证券指出，2月来，日元汇率稳中有升，兑美元升值1.9%至151.2、兑欧元和人民币分别升值2%、2.8%。虽然本轮日元升值曲线不及去年7-8月间“陡峭”，但相比去年，我们更看好本轮日元升值的持续性。回头看，去年4月-6月间日元多次触及160的低点、或已形成本轮的底部。虽然美国最终仍将推出的关税政策仍可能推升美元汇率，但随着日本再通胀进入第4年，我们在当前时点更看好日元升值的前景——尤其是考虑到2025年日本面临的国内外政治、经济环境。我们维持日央行今年可能加息两次以上的预测、不排除再次加息时点早于市场预期的7月——不排除日元今年兑美元升值的趋势刚刚启动。

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Although the curve of this round of yen appreciation is not as \"steep\" as that in July-August last year, compared with last year, we are more optimistic about the sustainability of this round of yen appreciation. Looking back, from April to June last year, the yen hit a low of 160 several time","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601688":1,"US7Y.BOND":1,"US3Y.BOND":1,"06886":1,"US30Y.BOND":1,"US10Y.BOND":1,"US2Y.BOND":1,"US12M.BOND":1,"US5Y.BOND":1,"US6M.BOND":1},"content_text":"华泰证券指出，2月来，日元汇率稳中有升，兑美元升值1.9%至151.2、兑欧元和人民币分别升值2%、2.8%。虽然本轮日元升值曲线不及去年7-8月间“陡峭”，但相比去年，我们更看好本轮日元升值的持续性。回头看，去年4月-6月间日元多次触及160的低点、或已形成本轮的底部。虽然美国最终仍将推出的关税政策仍可能推升美元汇率，但随着日本再通胀进入第4年，我们在当前时点更看好日元升值的前景——尤其是考虑到2025年日本面临的国内外政治、经济环境。我们维持日央行今年可能加息两次以上的预测、不排除再次加息时点早于市场预期的7月——不排除日元今年兑美元升值的趋势刚刚启动。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}