By Adam Whittaker

Glencore is scheduled to report results for 2024 on Wednesday. Here is what you need to know.

REVENUE FORECAST: Glencore is expected to report $232.93 billion in revenue, according to a consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. This would be a 6.9% increase on the prior year's $217.83 billion but still below 2022's $255.98 billion when coal prices soared to historic highs as a result of Russia's war in Ukraine and Europe's energy woes.

ADJUSTED EBITDA FORECAST: Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization are expected to fall on year to $14.61 billion from $17.10 billion, according to the Visible Alpha consensus.

NET PROFIT FORECAST: Analysts expect the Anglo-Swiss mining and metals trading giant to post net profit of $2.01 billion, down from $4.28 billion a year earlier and significantly down from $17.32 billion in 2022.

Glencore's shares have fallen 6.6% over the past six months and are down 9.2% over the past year.

WHAT TO WATCH

--Glencore will benefit from the 13% on-year increase in copper prices but weak coking coal prices could drag on its results, AJ Bell analysts wrote. Coking coal prices have been lower due to soft Chinese demand, higher Indonesian output and uncertainty over the effect of tariffs between Washington and Beijing, they added.

--Glencore is expected to announce a $1.4 billion share buyback and a base dividend of $1.5 billion, RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote in a recent research note. The miner made no buyback announcement alongside its 2023 results as it used cash to pay for its $6.93 billion purchase of Elk Valley Resources.

--Investors will be looking for signals that the miner and metals trader is considering merger and acquisition activity, AJ Bell analysts wrote. Glencore's very low $3.7 billion net debt means it can undertake expansive strategic action and reportedly still harbors ambitions to acquire rival Rio Tinto, the analysts said, citing a Financial Times report.

--Glencore is expected to issue updated production and capital expenditure guidance for 2025 through to 2028, as well as 2025 unit cost guidance. The miner isn't expected to announce major changes for its key copper and coal commodities but should report favorable 2025 unit cost guidance due to rising cobalt and silver prices, Citi analysts wrote last week.

Write to Adam Whittaker at adam.whittaker@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 18, 2025 04:22 ET (09:22 GMT)

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