IAMGOLD Corporation IAG is expected to deliver a year-over-year improvement in its bottom line when it reports fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 20, after market close.

Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IAG’s earnings has moved down 17.65% over the past 60 days to 14 cents per share. The consensus mark indicates a significant improvement from six cents per share reported in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

IAG’s Earnings Surprise History

IAMGOLD’s bottom line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. Over the same period, the company recorded an average earnings surprise of 203.4%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

What the Zacks Model Unveils for IAG

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for IAMGOLD this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for IAG is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: IAMGOLD currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped IAG’s Q4 Performance

Last month, IAMGOLD provided its fourth-quarter production and sales update, which may show how it is likely to fare in the to-be-reported quarter. 
IAG’s attributable gold production was 177,000 ounces compared with 136,000 ounces in the fourth quarter of 2023. This growth was driven by the contribution from the Côté Gold mine, which started production in 2024, along with improved performances at Westwood.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Côté Gold produced 62,000 attributable ounces (or 96,000 ounces on a 100% basis). IAMGOLD had expected to exit the quarter at 90% throughput. However, the company fell short of the target due to ramp-up-related challenges, which required downtime to implement solutions. 

The Westwood mine produced 35,000 ounces of gold compared with 28,000 ounces in the fourth quarter of 2023. The mine continues to benefit from higher head grades due to an increase in the grade and an increased proportion of the ore feed from underground. 

Essakane mine’s attributable production was 80,000 ounces in the fourth quarter, lower than 108,000 ounces in the year-ago quarter. Average head grades decreased, in line with the mine plan and guidance. In December, Essakane completed an annual shutdown of the plant for maintenance and replacement of liners.

IAG’s fourth-quarter gold sales were 177,000 ounces on an attributable basis, at an average realized gold price of approximately $2,509 per ounce. This approximates to revenues of $444 million. IAG’s fourth-quarter 2023 revenues were $298 million. 

However, pricing for certain main consumables, including cyanide and grinding media, is expected to have dented IAMGOLD’s margins. Also, at the Côté Gold Mine, operating and capitalized waste stripping unit costs are anticipated to have been higher until it achieves a throughput rate of 90%. 

While these factors are likely to have somewhat dented IAG’s earnings, higher revenues are expected to have offset the impacts.

IAG Stock’s Price Performance

IAG stock has gained 148% over the past year compared with the industry’s 50.4% growth.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.

Osisko Gold Royalties OR, expected to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings soon, has an Earnings ESP of +7.15% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Osisko Gold’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 16 cents per share, indicating 33% year-over-year growth. OR has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 6.63%.

Newmont NEM, ready to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 20, currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at 95 cents per share, indicating a 90% surge from the year-ago quarter. Newmont has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 22.16%.

CF Industries CF, scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings on Feb. 19, has an Earnings ESP of +1.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CF Industries’ fourth-quarter 2024 earnings is pegged at $1.49 per share, indicating in-line results with last year's quarter. CF has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 10.25%.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Newmont Corporation (NEM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Iamgold Corporation (IAG) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd (OR) : Free Stock Analysis Report

To read this article on Zacks.com click here.

Zacks Investment Research