It's been a good week for Hercules Capital, Inc. (NYSE:HTGC) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 3.1% to US$21.27. Revenues of US$494m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$1.61, missing estimates by 8.4%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Hercules Capital after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Hercules Capital

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Hercules Capital are now predicting revenues of US$534.0m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 8.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 30% to US$1.97. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$521.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.99 in 2025. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a modest lift to to revenue forecasts.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$20.97, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hercules Capital at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hercules Capital's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 8.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Hercules Capital's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$20.97, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hercules Capital analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Hercules Capital that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.