金吾财讯 | 天风证券发研报指裕元集团(00551)24Q4预计实现归母净利润0.9-1.1亿美元，同比-31.5%至-21.5%；24年预计归母净利4.3-4.4亿美元，同比+55%至+60%。2024年受惠于全球鞋履市场常态化，品牌客户对公司制造业务的鞋履需求大幅提升，订单满载辅以产能利用率及生产效率的显着提高，带动制造业务毛利及经营溢利均稳健增长。该行乐观看待25年订单趋势：公司致力就制造业务及宝胜推动降本增效及费用管控措施，带动营运效率的持续提升，使整体盈利能力稳健增长。公司24年前三季度制造业务产能持续处于供不应求状态，鞋履出货增长强劲，单价跌幅亦逐季收窄；同时今年以来新增产能稳步提升，各制造厂区产能负载不均状况按季改善。宝胜零售业务优化店效，持续提高直营实体店的销售转换率；继续推动数位化转型，秉持高度灵活敏捷的决策模式，宝胜全渠道销售仍相对稳健。随着订单进一步常态化，公司预计全球鞋履产业对首选优质供应商的需求将保持稳健。
该行基于公司成长稳健，25年表现可期，该行维持盈利预测，预计公司FY24-26年收入分别为81.8亿美元、91.1亿美元、103.3亿美元；归母净利分别为4.3亿美元、5.0亿美元、5.8亿美元；对应EPS分别为0.27美元/股、0.31美元/股、0.36美元/股；对应PE分别为8x、7x、6x。维持“买入”评级。
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