金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，近日，中国人民银行发布《2024年支付体系运行总体情况》；国家金融监督管理总局公布2024年四季度银行业保险业主要监管指标数据情况。2024年支付业务统计数据显示，我国支付体系运行平稳，银行账户数量、银行卡信贷规模、支付业务量等总体保持增长，但需注意的是，信用卡逾期问题有所加剧。银行板块投资来看，近期银行基本面格局稳定，预计1季度扩表积极，息差回落幅度在预期内，财务表现平稳。在此背景下，银行股短期走势更多受市场风格因素影响，中期走势则仍受益于商业模型重估。由于上周资本市场风格表现极致充分，预计后续银行等高确定性板块表现有望接力，绝对收益空间乐观。个股组合方面，推荐2条主线：1）红利贡献稳健回报，选择业绩增速稳定、分红率稳定、资产质量稳定、估值波动低的个股；2）商业模型优异公司，估值溢价有望回归常态区间：选择ROE高且确定性强，当前估值溢价仍处低位的个股。
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