Shareholders might have noticed that Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE:ESRT) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.0% to US$8.65 in the past week. Revenues were US$763m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.28, an impressive 250% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Empire State Realty Trust

Following last week's earnings report, Empire State Realty Trust's three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$764.0m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 79% to US$0.06 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$773.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.035 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the massive increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$11.12, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Empire State Realty Trust, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.00 and the most bearish at US$9.60 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Empire State Realty Trust's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Empire State Realty Trust's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 3.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Empire State Realty Trust.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Empire State Realty Trust following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Empire State Realty Trust's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$11.12, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Empire State Realty Trust going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Empire State Realty Trust (2 make us uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.