金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，2025年2月24日，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局当天发布的声明称，刚果总理和矿业部长签署了一项法令，决定暂停钴出口四个月，以应对全球钴供应过剩的局面。这项措施自2月生效，声明称该国政府将在三个月后进行评估，届时可能会根据情况调整或解除暂停措施。该行测算如果该国的钴出口禁令严格实施，或影响刚果（金）接近7万吨的钴出口量，对全球钴市场将产生较大影响。据国际钴业协会预计，2024年全球钴供应过剩量约为5万吨，该行预计2025年全球钴供应过剩量将维持这一水平。如果刚果（金）的钴出口禁令严格实施，全球钴市场在短期内或将转为短缺，钴价有望企稳反弹。该行指，中企在印尼布局大量镍钴湿法冶炼产能，该行预计若钴价上涨将显着利好相关公司，在国内囤有库存的钴厂商也将受益。
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