金吾财讯 | 中国宏桥(01378)逆市上扬，午后升幅扩大，截至发稿，报12.72港元，涨幅3.41%，成交额2.64亿港元。星展银行表示，由于需求增长超过供应，铝价上涨势头强劲。2025年铝价预计将上涨7.8%，因为铝的需求增长率为2.6%，而供应增长率为2.0%。铝矿供应紧张将为铝价上涨提供支撑。随着电动汽车、太阳能电池板、机器人和5G应用等新兴领域的发展，铝需求有望稳步增长。另外，中国铝产能接近满负荷运行，新增供应有限，为铝价提供了有力支撑。随着氧化铝价格下跌和2025年铝价保持弹性，铝的盈利能力将提高。该行将中国宏桥列为首选股，原因是该公司增长稳健、盈利能力高于同行、股息率有吸引力。在氧化铝价格下跌和高铝合金产品售价的支持下，其铝业务盈利能力将有所增强。国海证券提到，下游即将进入“金三银四”需求旺季，铝价或有更强势表现，电解铝环节盈利有望持续向上，关注板块投资机会。长期来看，铝行业长期供给增量有限，而需求仍有增长点，行业或将维持高景气，维持铝行业“推荐”评级。建议关注中国宏桥等。
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