金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，当地时间2月23日，德国举行联邦大选，基民盟/基社盟阵营得票领先，默茨有望成为新一届德国政府总理，需关注后续其如何领导组阁谈判。默茨立场偏中右翼，主张收紧移民政策，更关注能源独立而非绿色转型，支持自由市场经济，主张减税与削减公共开支，支持灵活调整“债务刹车”机制从而促进投资，对华态度强硬与务实并存。在俄乌问题上，默茨在对乌援助上立场更为坚定。该行判断，面对特朗普极限施压，包括德国在内的欧洲国家未来料将加大国防支出。整体来看，德国大选结果落地，法国预算案过关，近期欧洲暂无重大选举，欧盟近期的内政动荡暂时平息，影响欧元区经济与资产的政治与外交因素正迎来短期修复，但欧洲多重长期问题仍有待解决。
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