【连粕大幅增仓，内强外弱格局延续】金十期货特约光大期货点评：周一，国内豆粕增仓超17万手，主力合约价格逼近3000整数关口。近期市场密切关注美对外关税征税情况，美计划3月4日对加拿大、墨西哥执行25%的关税，对中国加征10%的关税，未来可能对欧盟征税。鉴于国内进口美豆占进口大豆比例在20%左右，关税担忧继续为国内市场注入贸易升水。反观美豆，出口前景难乐观，外盘美豆价格或因此受到压制。基本面来看，美国农业论坛奠定了美豆新作面积萎缩、库存压力下降的基调，3月底种植意向报告进一步利多空间有限，预计维持8400万英亩的预估。预计3月美豆价格偏弱震荡、全球大豆升贴水回落。国内方面，3月豆粕供需迎来最紧张时刻，预期3月油厂或继续由于原料供应偏紧而停机较多，若饲料需求跟进或南美大豆到港延迟，供需或存在边际收紧预期。因此在供应压力不大、关税炒作情绪不减的背景下，豆粕价格或延续偏强震荡走势，但需警惕目前盘面榨利丰厚，估值偏高的风险。
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