金吾财讯 | 极兔速递(01519)股价走弱，截至发稿，跌4.36%，报6.14港元，成交额3.81亿港元。消息面上，摩根士丹利认为极兔速递上季有空间实现略高于管理层指引的调整后EBITDA。管理层对增长前景的讨论备受关注。东南亚和新市场的电子物流竞争将推动极兔速递的估值动态。该行预计，极兔速递2024年第四季度盈利将优于管理层指引，主要得益于东南亚业务量超出预期：极兔速递报告2024年第四季度在东南亚和中国的业务量表现强劲，该行估计全年业务量分别超出指引范围高端11个百分点和4个百分点。新市场的业务量未达预期，该行估计主要因其核心电商客户在市场扩张上不够积极。该行的调整后EBITDA预测比市场预期高出约5%。该行对极兔速递估值扩张缺乏信心；维持“与大市同步”评级。目标价下调6%，从7.8港元降至7.3港元。
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