• Revenue: EUR2.195 billion, organic growth of 4.2%.
• EBITDA: EUR321 million, margin of 14.6%.
• Free Cash Flow: EUR138 million.
• ROIC: Improved by 110 basis points to 13.4%.
• EPS: Increased by over 22% to EUR0.10 per share.
• Total Net Debt: Reduced to under EUR900 million.
• Leverage Ratio: Improved from 4.8 to 2.8 times.
• Financing Costs: Reduced by over EUR12 million to EUR61.2 million.
• Innovation Share: Increased to 18% of revenue.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 6 Warning Signs with ARZTF.

Release Date: March 03, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Aryzta AG (ARZTF) achieved all six midterm targets a year ahead of schedule, including organic growth, EBITDA margin, and revenue.
• The company reported a revenue of EUR2.195 billion for 2024, reflecting organic growth of 4.2% with positive volume growth.
• Innovation remains a strong focus, with 18% of revenue coming from new products and technologies, up from 15% the previous year.
• Aryzta AG (ARZTF) has made significant progress in ESG initiatives, including a 28% reduction in total incidence rates and increased use of renewable energy.
• The company has successfully reduced total net debt levels from EUR1.1 billion in 2022 to under EUR900 million in 2024, improving the leverage ratio to 2.8 times.

Negative Points

• Despite positive volume growth, overall revenue growth was flat due to muted consumer sentiment and active portfolio management.
• The EBITDA margin in the rest of the world decreased by 80 basis points to 19.8% due to geopolitical events affecting the QSR business.
• Distribution costs increased by 50 basis points, driven by higher transport and storage costs.
• Higher SG&A costs were incurred due to salary inflation and ramp-up costs for future efficiency initiatives.
• The company faces ongoing challenges with rising labor costs, particularly in Germany, which could impact future investment decisions.

Q & A Highlights

Q: What were the drivers behind the change in organic growth from Q4 to the current year-to-date? A: Urs Jordi, Chairman, explained that the fluctuation in organic growth is due to portfolio optimization and geopolitical impacts. Innovations are performing well, and the bake-off market is outgrowing the overall bakery market. Martin Huber, CFO, added that the retail market share in Europe has grown in volume, and the current growth is supported by a mix of pricing and volume.

Q: Does the 3% growth include new capacity from the four new lines? A: Martin Huber, CFO, stated that the Malaysian lamination line, which came online in Q4, is included in the growth figures. The Swiss line will come online in Q2 2025, and other lines will follow throughout the year.

Q: What are the expectations for organic growth across different channels in 2025? A: Urs Jordi, Chairman, mentioned that while specific growth figures by channel are not provided, the food service and retail channels are expected to continue supporting organic growth. The bake-off market is growing faster than the overall bakery market, driven by factors like rising labor and energy costs.

Q: How are input costs, particularly labor and cocoa prices, affecting the company? A: Urs Jordi, Chairman, noted that about 40% of personnel costs are affected by minimum wage discussions, particularly in Germany. The company is focusing on efficiency improvements and technology to manage these costs. Martin Huber, CFO, added that input costs, including labor, are increasing, and the company is addressing this through pricing and efficiency initiatives.

Q: What is the outlook for free cash flow and CapEx in 2025? A: Martin Huber, CFO, expects free cash flow to continue at comparable levels, with higher growth CapEx anticipated. CapEx is expected to be above the guidance range of 3.5% to 4%, likely north of 4%.

Q: Is there a concern about potential geopolitical impacts or GLP-1s affecting demand? A: Urs Jordi, Chairman, stated that there is no significant impact expected from GLP-1s, as bakery consumption remains stable. Geopolitical impacts are not currently seen as a threat, and the company expects a stable outlook.

Q: Why was a dividend not announced despite improved financials? A: Urs Jordi, Chairman, indicated that capital allocation, including dividends, will be addressed at the Capital Markets Day in May. Martin Huber, CFO, added that the company is focusing on optimizing its balance sheet and financing costs.

Q: What are the expectations for gross profit margin improvements? A: Martin Huber, CFO, highlighted that the company focuses on margin-enhancing innovation and efficiency programs. While the gross margin is a core focus, specific long-term targets will be discussed at the upcoming Capital Markets Day.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.