Investors in Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE:GRBK) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at US$59.73 following the release of its yearly results. Green Brick Partners reported US$2.1b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.45 beat expectations, being 3.9% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Green Brick Partners

Following the latest results, Green Brick Partners' three analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.32b in 2025. This would be a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$8.55, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.31b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.52 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 22% to US$70.00. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Green Brick Partners' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Green Brick Partners' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Green Brick Partners going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Green Brick Partners you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.