金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，阅文集团(00772)发布盈警公告，确认新丽相关商誉减值，同时预计2024年公司非IFRS净利润11.0-11.5亿元，较彭博一致预期低16-19%。该行小幅下调阅文集团2024年全年收入预期1%至77亿元，主要考虑部分新丽项目递延，叠加AI人员/算力投入等因素，该行下调非IFRS净利润预期18%至11亿元。该行指，2025年新丽重点剧集储备丰富，排播或向下半年倾斜，全年仍有望实现3-4亿元净利润预期。考虑腾讯动漫整合效果逐步释放，短剧、衍生品放量，阅文核心IP运营增长潜力仍存。基于2025年排播项目及潜在的AI投入，该行下调2025年调整后净利润预期13%至14亿元。基于18倍2025年市盈率，微调目标价至28港元（原为29港元），较现价13%的上涨空间，维持中性评级。
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