金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，中国电力(02380)将于3月21日公布2024全年业绩，因2024年风电及光伏发电量略低于预期，该行下调2024年盈利预测9.5%至40.7亿元，同比上升53%。展望2025年，该行预期公司单位燃料成本仍有3%的同比下降，但参考2025 年火电长协电价后，该行预期2025年火电的点火价差有约7%的下降。风光项目方面，该行预期2025年的利用率仍将同比下降约2%，以反映放寛限电率的全年影响。同时，在136号文新政发布后，该行认为公司风/光电价在提高市场化占比后将同比下跌5%。反映以上因素后，该行下调公司2025年盈利预测22.2%至48.6亿元（同比+19%）。该行以分部估值得出的目标价因此调低至3.72港元。虽然盈利预测有所下调，但公司2024/25年超过7%的股息率仍具吸引力，维持买入评级。
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