BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:BTSG) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.3% to US$17.48 in the week after its latest annual results. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.09 per share on revenues of US$11b, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for BrightSpring Health Services

Following the latest results, BrightSpring Health Services' 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$11.9b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with BrightSpring Health Services forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.43 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$24.68, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BrightSpring Health Services at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BrightSpring Health Services' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BrightSpring Health Services.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around BrightSpring Health Services' earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for BrightSpring Health Services going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether BrightSpring Health Services' debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.