金吾财讯 | 交银国际发研报指，首次覆盖第四范式(06682)，给予买入评级。1）软件行业毛利率与估值水平呈正相关性，是最快判断公司商业模式及企业健康度的核心指标。2）公司现价对应2025年仅3.8倍市销率，对比相同毛利率区间的软件公司平均市销率 7.7倍，仍有提升空间。3）公司股东结构优化，受加入港股通、MSCI小盘指数，以及行业技术创新带动港股市场估值重塑加持，交易量提升；4）先知AI平台驱动收入增长确定性强，预计2024-27 年复合增速24%，收入规模扩大及运营费率持续收窄带动盈利改善，预计将于2026年实现盈利。由于公司尚未盈利，该行采用市销率估值。基于可比AI公司2025 年平均市销率4.5倍（剔除极值），及该行2025年收入预测65.5亿元，计算目标价64港元，较现价上涨空间26%。
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