3 月 13 日，摩根大通策略师认为美国股市回调最严重的阶段可能已经结束，信用市场显示经济衰退风险较低。策略师 Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 和 Mika Inkinen 在周三的报告中指出，相比股票和利率市场，在过去两年多次给出准确信号的信用市场不太担忧美国经济衰退的风险。
分析显示，对经济增长更为敏感的小型公司更适合衡量美国的周期性风险。目前，小盘股市场反映约 50% 的衰退概率，这与利率和大宗商品市场的预期基本一致。但是，美国债务市场暗示衰退概率仅为 9% 至 12%。近期市场调整更多受量化基金调整仓位推动，而不是基本面投资者或主动管理投资者重新评估美国经济衰退风险所导致的。（金十）
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