汇丰环球研究指，同程(00780.HK) 股价今年累升13%，跑赢携程(09961.HK) 26%，或受公司采用人工智能模型DeepSeek引发市场正面情绪推动。该行认为目前过早判断DeepSeek对市场推广效益、跨项目销售潜力及短期盈利上望空间的影响。
该行关注行业基本面今年以来转差，酒店及机票价格压力继续令毛交易总额增长受压。携程早前公布去年第四季业绩时，料本地游今年增长放缓至8%至10%，航空交通增长放缓至低单位数及酒店预订增长中至高单位数，携程更要增加推广开支以加快海外扩张，令盈利率短期受压。
该行未见同程在同业指引疲弱下调整盈利预测，又指同程管理层或需在行业复常下再投资推动收入增长，为盈利率构成压力，且令市场业绩预测出现下调风险。该行亦认为同程在毛交易总额疲软下增加佣金率的空间有限。
该行下调对同程今明两年盈利预测9%，投资评级由“买入”降至“持有”，目标价由21元降至20元。该行指对比下更偏好携程，基于股价近期调整后的盈利能见度。(fc/a)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-03-12 16:25。)
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.