【美联储议息会议暗示或放缓缩表，有色偏强震荡】金十期货3月20日讯，昨日国际铜、沪铜价格继上周上行后维持高位震荡，美盘时间，Comex铜伴随美联储政策再次冲高。1. 宏观方面，市场预期美联储将在不久的将来停止缩表，从而避免流动性过紧的情况出现。鲍威尔仅强调了近两个月的商品通胀隐忧和关税的“难以评估”，并表示美国经济强劲，但存在不确定性，经济衰退的风险“有所上升，但还不高”。议息会议后，美元指数维持低位震荡驱动铜价上涨。2. 供需方面，原料趋紧预期再次升温，冶炼环境仍较差，库存继续下降，下游消费疲弱局面尚未明显改善。但伴随着供给端压力明显上行，国内供需趋向偏紧。3. 总的来说，原料趋紧格局保持，冶炼端减产开始出现，供给端压力上行，关税政策仍是影响全球贸易方向的重要因素。宏观环境驱动较为关键，货币定价的商品端仍有支撑。国内方面后续重点关注政策刺激的经济实际情况，国际主要关注宏观环境变化影响。
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