金吾财讯 | 天风证券发研报指，中国宏桥(01378)2024年公司实现营业收入1561.69亿元，同比+16.9%；实现毛利421.63亿元，同比+101.2%；实现归母净利润223.72亿元，同比+95.21%。同比大幅增长主要系铝价提升以及煤炭及预焙阳极价格下跌带来电解铝成本下降。此外24年铝土矿及氧化铝价格大幅增长，公司凭借联营公司的铝土矿资源和自有氧化铝产能显著增厚利润。该行表示，氧化铝价格从23年均价2919元/吨上涨到24年4078元/吨，同比+39.7%，带来营收和利润的大幅增加。24年氧化铝吨生产成本保持稳定，铝土矿价格上涨没有显著抬升公司氧化铝成本，一方面该行预计公司持有较多铝土矿库存，所以氧化铝价格的边际抬升传导到成本涨幅相对不明显，另一方面该行预计公司向联营公司赢联盟采购的优势显著，氧化铝成本相对可控。该行预计25/26/27年公司实现归母净利润230/232/234亿，对应当前PE6.0/5.9/5.9x，假设分红率维持63%，对应股息率10%，铝价弹性带来盈利弹性+基本面的持续超预期带来估值提升，维持“买入”评级。
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