金吾财讯 | 中金发研报指，国务院总理在新一份政府工作报告中提出，今年赤字占GDP比率将提高至4%，预料将发行总计1.3万亿元人民币的超长期特别国债和4.4万亿元人民币的地方政府专项债券，预计随着气温回升、资金到位及季节性因素改善，基础设施建设实际开工量将增加，带动水泥、钢筋等需求跌幅收窄。该行表示，去年玻璃纤维和水泥的价格竞争激烈，去年下半年起供应端状况改善，令价格有所回升，至今年首季以来价格一直保持相对稳定，由于基数较低，预计企业盈利将稳健增长。其中水泥价格每年旺季期间各地都会宣布涨价，若旺季需求恢复正常，预计水泥价格将继续上涨。该行看好具有潜在上涨空间、盈利回升、估值低且2025年第一季度盈利预测强劲的板块和股票，建议投资者留意水泥行业的投资机会，关注海螺水泥(00914)、华新水泥(06655)，预期趁低买入将可在旺季时受惠于业绩改善的潜在上行。
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