交银国际发布研报称,维持华润电力(00836)“买入”评级,目标价下调至23.1港元,目前公司6.8倍2025年预测市盈率已在5年历史平均以下,该行认为已部分反映公司在2025年电价及利用小时的不确定性。
交银国际指出,华润电力将会在3月20日公布2024全年业绩,经财务模型调整后,估计2024年公司核心盈利同比增长15.7%至127亿元。考虑到2025年风光项目限电率以及市场化交易量同比上升,同时火电点火价差预期同比下降,下调了公司风光项目利用率与平均电价1至2个百分点。因此下调2025和2026年盈利预测22%和21%。
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