金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，中国宏桥(01378)2024年净利润为人民币223亿元（同比增长95%），与2024年12月预估的95%利润增长一致。这意味着2024年下半年净利润增长47%。扣除可转换债券(CB)的公允价值损失，2024年核心净利润将达到人民币245亿元（同比增长114%）。宏桥宣布派发每股1.02港元的末期股息。加上每股0.59港元的中期股息，全年派息率达到63%，该行认为这对投资人来说是惊喜。该行将2025-26年盈利预测上调26%/25%，主要由于铝价假设上调（供应紧张，行业利用率达到98%）同时煤价假设下调。该行估计，铝价每上涨1%，宏桥盈利将增加3%，而煤炭价格每下降1%，盈利将增加0.5%。当前股价对应了约11%的股息率，该行认为相当具吸引力。该行将估值基期延展至2025年，目标价从19.6港元上调至20.6港元，基于7.2倍2025年预测市盈率（历史平均值加上0.5个标准差）加上每股1.02港元的应付股息。维持“买入”评级。
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