汇丰研究发表报告，指内蒙古呼和浩特推出育儿补贴带来意外上行惊喜，这是首个涵盖第一胎并为第二胎/第三胎提供最高奖励的计划，而更多省市可能在国务院促进消费计划后跟进。婴儿奶粉行业可能直接受益于即将推出的新生儿补贴计划。然而，扭转低出生率仍是一项艰难任务，因为任何育儿补贴的有效性需考虑多重因素，包括住房与教育成本、持续的育儿支持以及社会观念的改变。该行估计，要将婴儿奶粉需求提升10%，每年至少需要500亿元人民币以上的补贴。
汇丰研究重申中国飞鹤(06186.HK) “持有”评级，目标价由5.35元升至7.25元。该行尚未调整其盈利预测，因为育儿政策生效需要时间。上调目标价主要是通过降低加权平均资本成本，采用较低的贝塔值以反映行业前景的改善。目标价隐含2025年预测市盈率为14.4倍，股息收益率为5.4%，相较于过去两年其平均一年期远期市盈率8.3倍(范围6倍至13.3倍)和股息收益率7.4%(范围5.4%至10%)。(ad/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-03-17 16:25。)
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