智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，上调中国神华(01088,601088.SH)H股目标价43%至36港元，亦上调A股目标价29%，二者均维持“跑赢行业”评级。该行指，公司2024年H股归母净利624亿元人民币(下同)，同比减3.4%。业绩好于市场预期，认为主要是公司增效控管本，减损等同比减少。公司拟发放202年末期股利2.26元/股(含税)，对应76.5%派息比率，分红金额较去年同期持平，优于市场预期。考虑到公司自由现金流和净现金状态，中金认为公司有望保持相对稳定的分红(2025-2027年分红承诺比例不低于65%)。
报告称，2025年公司资本支出计划417.93亿元，其中煤炭/电力/运输/化工支出96.81/174.11/81.66/54.46亿元。随着新街一&二井(合计1600 万吨/年产能)及塔然高勒煤矿(1000万吨/年产能)投产、发电机组(合计8640 兆瓦装机)改扩建、铁路港口基建设施扩充、以及包头煤质烯烃计画(75 万吨/年产能)投产，中金看好公司煤炭产业链一体化优势可望进一步巩固。
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